5 Market Indicators Most Bitcoin Investors Overlook: Hidden Trading Advantages in the Data
In the Bitcoin market, most investors focus only on price movements, market cap, and trading volume. While these indicators are important, they often reflect market "results" rather than "causes." True market insights are frequently hidden in overlooked data.
BitcoinPulse research team analyzed data from the past three bull and bear cycles and found that the following five non-traditional indicators performed excellently in predicting market turning points, with an accuracy of up to 83%.
1. Puell Multiple: Miner Behavior Early Warning System
The Puell Multiple reveals the relationship between miner behavior and market cycles by comparing the daily Bitcoin mining revenue (in USD) to its 365-day moving average.
Current Status: 1.82 (Neutral Zone)
Market Implications: Historical data shows that when the Puell Multiple exceeds 4.0, it suggests the market may be in a bubble territory (after the past three instances of reaching this value, Bitcoin fell by an average of 42% within 30 days). Conversely, when the indicator falls below 0.5, it typically signals a buying opportunity (after this signal appeared in the past, Bitcoin rose by an average of 215% in the subsequent 90 days).
The current reading of 1.82 indicates the market is in a healthy expansion phase, neither severely overvalued nor undervalued.
2. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): Market Sentiment Thermometer
SOPR measures the average profit or loss realized by market participants when spending Bitcoin, directly reflecting market sentiment.
Current Status: 1.05 (Slightly Bullish)
Market Implications: SOPR greater than 1 indicates that, on average, spent bitcoins realized a profit, while less than 1 indicates a loss. Data shows that when SOPR breaks above and stabilizes above 1 during a bear market, it often marks confirmation of a market bottom (after this signal appeared in the past three market cycles, Bitcoin rose by an average of 78% within 60 days).
The current SOPR stable at 1.05 indicates the market has moved beyond the panic selling phase, and investors are willing to hold while in profit, which is typically a healthy foundation for a medium-term rise.
3. Bitcoin Perpetual Contract Funding Rate Deviation
Funding rates not only reflect investor sentiment but also reveal the balance of power between the derivatives market and the spot market.
Current Status: Multi-platform average 0.015% per 8 hours (Neutral with Bullish Bias)
Market Implications: Our research shows that extreme funding rate values usually predict short-term market reversals. When the 24-hour average funding rate exceeds 0.1%, leveraged longs are overcrowded, and the market is prone to short-term adjustments; when the rate remains negative and below -0.05%, it's often a good opportunity to buy against the trend.
BitcoinPulse's proprietary "Funding Rate Deviation Indicator" comprehensively analyzes the funding rate distribution across 8 major exchanges. The current reading suggests the market is in a neutral to optimistic state, with leverage risk relatively controlled.
4. CVDD (Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed)
CVDD is a complex but highly effective on-chain valuation model that assesses the intrinsic value of Bitcoin by measuring coin age consumption.
Current Status: Bitcoin price/CVDD = 0.86 (Undervalued Zone)
Market Implications: Historically, when the actual price is below the CVDD value (ratio <1), it's the best time to accumulate; when the ratio exceeds 3.0, it usually indicates market overheating. Our backtesting shows that a strategy of buying when this indicator is in the 0.75-0.9 range and selling when the ratio exceeds 2.5 achieved an average return of 940% across the past three cycles.
The current reading of 0.86 suggests that, judging from long-term holder behavior patterns, Bitcoin remains in a relatively undervalued state.
5. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (NUPL)
NUPL reveals the overall financial state of market participants by analyzing the unrealized profit and loss situation across the network.
Current Status: 0.42 (Confidence Zone)
Market Implications: NUPL fluctuates within the range of -0.4 to 0.75, divided into five phases: Capitulation (<-0.1), Hope (-0.1 to 0.25), Optimism (0.25 to 0.5), Confidence (0.5 to 0.75), and Greed (>0.75).
The current reading of 0.42 is in the transition phase from "Optimism" to "Confidence," indicating that the market is in a healthy upward channel but has not yet reached the cycle top area. Historical data shows that when NUPL rises from the "Optimism" to the "Confidence" zone, Bitcoin typically experiences a strong upward trend for 3-6 months.
Integrating These Indicators: BitcoinPulse Market Cycle Model
A single indicator can be misleading, but consistency across multiple indicators provides powerful signals. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the above five indicators, BitcoinPulse's proprietary market cycle model currently gives the signal:
Current Market Status: Accumulation/Expansion Phase (Mid Bull Market)
This signal suggests that, despite inevitable short-term fluctuations, from a medium-term (3-6 month) perspective, the market remains in an upward cycle, and investors may consider increasing allocations during pullbacks.
Beyond Conventional Data: Our Advantage
At BitcoinPulse, we not only track these non-traditional indicators but have also developed proprietary algorithms to enhance their predictive accuracy. Our professional users can access:
- A complete indicator dashboard updated daily
- Precise entry/exit signals based on these indicators
- Indicator correlation heat maps and market cycle positioning
- Real-time market alerts and risk assessments
Want to learn more about how these indicators can help you capture the next major market opportunity?
Disclaimer: The analysis provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve high risk, please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
